U.S. Birth Rate Inflection · The 2007 Peak and What It Means
The U.S. fertility rate hit the replacement rate of 2.10 in 2007 — for a brief moment, births kept pace with deaths. Since then it has fallen to 1.85 by 2014, then 1.62 by 2020 and 2025. The 1990 (2.07) and 2007 (2.10) peaks bracketed the last era in which the U.S. population could grow without net immigration.
Why this matters for B2B
A sustained 1.62 fertility rate means the U.S. population base only grows through immigration going forward. That reshapes consumer categories: baby/children product growth flattens, elderly-care and health categories accelerate, workforce tightness pushes automation demand. For wholesale planners, cross-check any category tied to family formation or child count against this curve. Pair with deaths per hour (c82) and America at 250 (c81).
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), state GDP by industry, 2025 series. Visualization: Voronoi / Visual Capitalist ("Manufacturing's Share of U.S. GDP by State"). Original image reproduced above with source attribution intact.